Monday, April 20, 2009

MACD Bullish Signals



MACD generates bullish signals from three main sources:

  1. Positive Divergence
  2. Bullish Moving Average Crossover
  3. Bullish Centerline Crossover

Positive Divergence

Novellus Systems, Inc. (NVLS) MACD example chart from StockCharts.com

A Positive Divergence occurs when MACD begins to advance and the security is still in a downtrend and makes a lower reaction low. MACD can either form as a series of higher Lows or a second Low that is higher than the previous Low. Positive Divergences are probably the least common of the three signals, but are usually the most reliable, and lead to the biggest moves.

Bullish Moving Average Crossover

Novellus Systems, Inc. (NVLS) MACD example chart from StockCharts.com

A Bullish Moving Average Crossover occurs when MACD moves above its 9-day EMA, or trigger line. Bullish Moving Average Crossovers are probably the most common signals and as such are the least reliable. If not used in conjunction with other technical analysis tools, these crossovers can lead to whipsaws and many false signals. Bullish Moving Average Crossovers are used occasionally to confirm a positive divergence. A positive divergence can be considered valid when a Bullish Moving Average Crossover occurs after the MACD Line makes its second "higher Low".

Sometimes it is prudent to apply a price filter to the Bullish Moving Average Crossover to ensure that it will hold. An example of a price filter would be to buy if MACD breaks above the 9-day EMA and remains above for three days. The buy signal would then commence at the end of the third day.

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